SSLT-GRU:面向低空风速时间序列预测的LSTM-Transformer优化模型

    SSLT-GRU: optimized LSTM-transformer model for low-altitude wind speed prediction

    • 本文提出一种融合麻雀搜索算法(SSA)与门控循环单元(GRU)的LSTM-Transformer混合优化模型:SSLT-GRU。该模型首先通过LSTM提取风速时间序列的长期时序依赖特征;随后引入Transformer模块捕捉全局动态关联,增强对风切变等复杂扰动的建模能力。在此基础上,采用SSA算法对LSTM-Transformer的关键超参数进行协同寻优,以解决人工调参易陷入局部最优的问题;最后引入残差GRU模块对初步预测结果进行误差校正,进一步提升预测精度。基于两类飞行平台实测风速时间序列数据集的实验结果表明:所提模型在6步预测上的均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.296 m/s和0.480 1 m/s,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为5.69%和3.58%;在12步预测上的RMSE分别为0.353 9 m/s和0.685 6 m/s,MAPE分别为6.89%和6.45%,验证了所提模型在低空风速预测任务中具有优越的鲁棒性与预测精度。

       

      Abstract: This paper proposes a hybrid optimized model named SSLT-GRU, which integrates Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA) with Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) into an LSTM-Transformer architecture. The model first employs LSTM to capture long-term temporal dependencies in the wind speed sequences. Subsequently, a Transformer module is introduced to model global dynamic correlations, thereby enhancing the representation of complex disturbances such as wind shear. Moreover, the SSA algorithm is utilized to cooperatively optimize key hyperparameters of the LSTM-Transformer component, mitigating the risk of manual tuning being trapped in local optima. Additionally, a residual GRU module is incorporated to refine the initial forecasts by correcting residual errors, further improving forecasting accuracy. Experimental results on two real-world wind speed time-series datasets collected from different aerial platforms demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.296 m/s and 0.4801 m/s, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.69% and 3.58% for 6-step-ahead forecasts, respectively. For 12-step-ahead predictions, the RMSE values are 0.3539 m/s and 0.6856 m/s, with MAPEs of 6.89% and 6.45%, respectively. These results validate the superior robustness and forecasting accuracy of the proposed model for low-altitude wind speed forecasting.

       

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